According to a new model, released last week by the Institutes of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), the U.S. coronavirus death toll could surpass 200,000 by October 1.
The new model was released when many states were moving forward to reopen the economy. Some states have reported a surge in new COVID-19 cases, with experts blaming Memorial Day gatherings and large protests.
The projection also predicts what to expect in the coming months.
From now to the end of August, experts believe that the death toll will remain fairly stable. However, the nation will start seeing a surge in the number of COVID-19 deaths during the last week of August or early September. And the number of deaths is likely to increase rapidly in September, ranging anywhere from 133,201 to 290,222.
So far, the United States officials have reported more than 121,000 deaths.
IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray said in a news release, “We’re now able to look ahead and see where states need to begin planning for a second wave of COVID-19.”
“We hope to see our model proven wrong by the swift actions governments and individuals take to reduce transmission,” he added.
Using facemasks is just one prevention measure. However, Dr. Murray, who is a researcher in global health and public health at the University of Washington in Seattle, said it could reduce coronavirus transmission by up to 50%.
The model also predicted that states such as Florida, Georgia, Arizona, and Colorado could see the first surge in COVID-19 deaths.
Experts predict that New York, New Jersey, California, and Michigan may have the highest number of coronavirus deaths by October 1. Globally, the virus has sickened more than 8.7 million people, with officials reporting over 462,000 deaths so far.
