A new study by researchers of the University of Bristol has suggested that early warning signals (EWSs) could play a key role in monitoring disease outbreaks, such as COVID-19, according to Medical Xpress.
The study, published in Biology Letters, found that warning signals could be detected weeks earlier than any rapid increase in infections. The researchers said the study findings could help nations to improve the accuracy of their decisions, allowing timely interventions if needed.
The authors used a novel, sequential analysis combined with daily COVID case data across 24 countries, and suggested EWSs can predict COVID waves.
Warnings were regularly detectable before a significant surge in cases, but the reliability of these warnings depended on the amount of time between successive waves of infection and the mathematical likelihood of a critical transition, per Medical Xpress.
If scientists can identify rapid increases in cases before they occur, they can modify their behaviors and inform governments to take necessary actions.
Study author Duncan O’Brien said, “We’ve always been aware that any technique that’s able to predict the appearance of disease would be useful in protecting human health. This has never been more apparent with the global COVID-19 pandemic and the many discussions around when governments should put interventions in place.”
“Our research found that hotly debated early warning signals were most reliable before the second COVID-19 wave that was experienced by many, and whilst these signals performed less well for the first and third waves, any rapid increase in cases could be identified well in advance,” he added.
O’Brien explained, “There is a lot of conflicting evidence surrounding EWS use in epidemiology and ecological monitoring in general, so we hope some the methodological points we raise in this work helps others disentangle the complicated behavior of these warnings.”
It is difficult to interpret EWSs using real-world data because of their need for specific mathematical conditions. The article appeared in Medical Xpress.
