Researchers from the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health said that the United States could endure social distancing until 2022, which means unless a vaccine or treatment becomes quickly available.
Social distancing measures, such as school closures and stay-at-home orders, may persist for at least a couple of years if we do not have a vaccine, which is directly contraindicating a White House study that suggests the pandemic will get over by this summer.
The researchers, who published their findings in the journal Science, used the data of COVID-19 and other coronaviruses that caused SARS and MERS to create possible scenarios of the ongoing pandemic.
“Intermittent distancing may be required into 2022 unless critical care capacity is increased substantially or a treatment or vaccine becomes available,” the researchers wrote. “Even in the event of apparent elimination, SARS-CoV-2 surveillance should be maintained since a resurgence in contagion could be possible as late as 2024.”
The team predicted that the new coronavirus would come back strongly and quickly once all the restrictions are lifted.
Study author and epidemiologist Dr. Marc Lipsitch said, “If intermittent distancing is the approach that’s chosen, it may be necessary to do it for several years, which is obviously a very long time.”
The researchers expressed concerns over prolonged social distancing, adding that it would likely have “profoundly negative economic, social, and educational consequences.”
The team hopes their study would help identify ways to bring the ongoing pandemic under control.
Social distancing seems to be an effective measure even though the number of coronavirus cases in the US has been continuing to grow.
CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield said, “Social distancing is one of the most powerful weapons against COVID-19,” the disease caused by the new coronavirus.
“If we can just maximize that social distancing, we can limit this virus’s ability,” he added.
States have issued stay-at-home orders, allowing only for essential tasks or errands. Some states have imposed penalties for breaking the law. For instance, Maine has imposed the penalty of up to $1,000 fine and six months in prison.
Globally, the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases has crossed over 2,000,000, with officials reporting more than 126,700 deaths. In the United States alone, the virus has affected more than 614,200 and killed over 26,000 people so far.
