A new study by the researchers of Duke University has found that large pandemics, including the ongoing COVBID pandemic, are not as rare as we may think, according to Medical Xpress.
The ongoing pandemic may be one of the deadliest viral outbreaks we have experienced in more than a century, but statistically, such events are more likely than we thought.
The study, published in the journal of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, analyzed a newly assembled record of past outbreaks to estimate the intensity of such events and the yearly probability of them recurring.
The researchers have found that the possibility of a COVID-like pandemic is about 2% in any year. They said that possibility is only growing, highlighting the need to adjust perceptions of pandemic risks and expectations for preparedness, per Medical Xpress.
Co-author of the study William Pan said, “The most important takeaway is that large pandemics like COVID-19 and the Spanish flu are relatively likely. Understanding that pandemics aren’t so rare should raise the priority of efforts to prevent and control them in the future.”
Lead author Marco Marani and the team used new statistical methods to measure the scale and frequency of outbreaks over the past four centuries. Their analysis found considerable variability in the rate at which pandemics have occurred in the past.
Spanish flu, one of the deadliest pandemics in modern history, killed over 30 million people from 1918 to 1920. And the possibility of a pandemic of similar magnitude ranged from 0.3% to 1.9% per year over the past four centuries.
These possibilities mean that it is statistically likely that a large-scale pandemic would occur within the next 400 years.
However, the statistics also show the risk of extreme outbreaks is growing rapidly.
Considering the current findings of the increasing rate at which new pathogens, such as COVID, have broken loose in human populations in the past 50 years, the researchers estimate that the possibility of new disease outbreaks will likely grow three-fold in the next few decades, according to Medical Xpress.
They also estimate that a pandemic similar to COVID is likely within a span of 59 years, a result they wrote is “much lower than intuitively expected.”
Another author of the study Gabriel Katul said, “When a 100-year flood occurs today, one may erroneously presume that one can afford to wait another 100 years before experiencing another such event. This impression is false. One can get another 100-year flood the next year.”
Pan, who is an environmental health scientist, said there are certain factors responsible for making these outbreaks more frequent, such as increasing population growth, changes in food systems, environmental degradation, and frequent contact between humans and disease-harboring animals. The article was published in Medical Xpress.
