A renowned epidemiologist told CNBC that the ongoing pandemic is not coming to an end soon, considering the fact that a very small proportion of the world has been vaccinated.
Dr. Larry Brilliant, who worked with the World Health Organization (WHO) from 1973 to 1976 helping to successfully eradicate smallpox, said the Delta variant is the “most contagious virus” ever.
The Delta variant, which was first identified in India, has affected the United States, China, as well as other countries in Europe, Africa, and Asia.
Dr. Brilliant said the good news is that vaccines, particularly those using messenger RNA (mRNA) technology and the one by Johnson & Johnson, have been holding up against the Delta variant.
He noted that only 15% of the world population has been vaccinated and over 100 countries have inoculated only 5% of their people,
“I think we’re closer to the beginning than we are to the end [of the pandemic], and that’s not because the variant that we’re looking at right now is going to last that long,” explained Dr. Brilliant, who is now the CEO of Pandefense Advisory, a pandemic response consultancy.
Predicting that the coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) will eventually become a “forever virus” like influenza, he said, “Unless we vaccinate everyone in 200 plus countries, there will still be new variants.”
He also explained that if his prediction turns out to be true, the Delta strain will spread so quickly that “it basically runs out of candidates” to infect.
The American epidemiologist also said that there is a low probability that a “super variant” may emerge and vaccines may fail to work against it. It is hard to predict these things, but he added that it is a non-zero probability, which means it cannot be ruled out.
Dr. Brilliant said, “It’s such a catastrophic event should it occur, we have to do everything possible to prevent it. And that means to get everyone vaccinated — not just in your neighborhood, not just in your family, not just in your country but all over the world.”
Meanwhile, countries with relatively high vaccination rates, including the U.S. and Israel, are now planning to give a booster shot to their population. And on the other hand, some countries, such as Haiti, just received their first lot of vaccine doses.
The WHO has urged the wealthy countries to put the boosters on hold and give low-income countries a chance to vaccinate their people, according to CNBC.
However, Dr. Brilliant said one group of people needs a booster shot “right away,” especially those who are 65 and above and were fully vaccinated more than six months ago but have a weakened immune system.
He said, “It is this category of people that we’ve seen create multiple mutations when the virus goes through their body. So those people, I would say, should be given a third dose, a booster right away — as quickly as moving the vaccines to those countries that haven’t had a very high chance to buy them or have access to them. I consider those two things about equal.”
