The new coronavirus, SARS-Cov-2, which causes COVID-19 infection, is likely to become just a seasonal nuisance within the next 10 years, according to a study conducted by the researchers of the University of Utah.
The study findings, published in the journal Viruses, predicted that the complexity of SARS-CoV-2 may decrease over the next 10 years as more and more people will collectively develop immunity.
Senior author Prof. Fred Adler of the University of Utah said, “This shows a possible future that has not yet been fully addressed. Over the next decade, the severity of COVID-19 may decrease as populations collectively develop immunity.”
The researchers said that the transformation in the disease could be driven by adaptations of the body’s immune response rather than by changes in the virus itself, according to Science Daily.
Prof. Adler explained, “In the beginning of the pandemic, no one had seen the virus before. Our immune system was not prepared.”
The team’s models have shown that more adults become partially immune so severe infections will eventually disappear over the next 10 years. And the only people who will be exposed to the virus for the first time will be children but they are naturally less vulnerable to severe COVID illness.
The first author of the study Alexander Beams said, “The novel approach here is to recognize the competition taking place between mild and severe COVID-19 infections and ask which type will get to persist in the long run.”
“We’ve shown that mild infections will win, as long as they train our immune systems to fight against severe infections,” he added.
Prof. Adler said, “Our next step is comparing our model predictions with the most current disease data to assess which way the pandemic is going as it is happening. Do things look like they’re heading in a bad or good direction? Is the proportion of mild cases increasing? Knowing that might affect decisions we make as a society.” The University of Utah and COVID MIND 2020 supported the study that was published as “Will SARS-CoV-2 Become Just Another Seasonal Coronavirus?”
